This week hundreds of climate change adaptation planners and researchers are convening for Adaptation Futures, the second international climate change adaptation conference, being held in Tucson, Arizona. It's going to be 100 degrees F and the conference organizer has warned us to dress for the heat. He wrote, "Tucson is famously casual and hot. Not used to either of those? Take a cue from the conference – adapt!" (I think I'm going to enjoy this conference. They are using imperative verbs in the orientation e-mail telling us to leave our pretensions at home.)
Here's the current program. I'm scheduled to present about my scenario planning case study in a panel with robust decision-making folks from Rand on Thursday (2:45 - 4:00 PM, Session C, in Gallagher). After that I should be answering questions at my poster in the poster session room (4:00 - 4:45).
Watch the plenary sessions streaming online here.
Some of the adaptation researchers I'm looking forward to hearing speak are Saleemul Huq, someone who has been writing about adaptation in the developing world for a decade or more, now a Senior Fellow in the Climate Change Group at the International Institute for Environment and Development in the UK, Patrick McCarthy of the Southwest Climate Change Initiative, and, from the West Coast, Susi Moser, one of California's top climate change adaptation thinkers/researchers, and -- representing the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington -- Amy Snover and Lara Whitley Binder, who brought us the famous 2007 guidebook used by governments all over the U.S. "Preparing for Climate Change, A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments."
Right now it is 54 degrees F in Oakland, so packing for 100 degrees is an exercise in imagination. Truly, this is one of the biggest challenges in climate change adaptation planning-- trying to imagine and sufficiently prepare for a completely different climate from the one you know! I'm packing my bathing suit, sandals and a paper fan-- and a sweater just in case.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Monday, April 23, 2012
When the Climate Tells You It's Time to Go
In "Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific," an 80-page report released March 13, 2012, by the Asian Development Bank, researchers attempt to tease out climate change factors from the many other factors driving migration and displacement in the region expected to sustain the worst population impacts from climate change.
Basically, where Asian Pacific countries are concerned, good migration policies make good neighbors! This has always been true, but the pressure is on to strengthen these policies now. The report ends on this note:
You can't force a person to move out of harm's way, but you can-- and governments must-- create the conditions that allow for safe passage to a better place when the climate tells you it's time to go.
[I]t [is] hard to predict with any degree of certainty the number of people who will be displaced by climate change. However, it is possible to identify the processes by which these migrations will occur, as well as the places where they are most likely to happen. This is what this report aims to do, focusing on extreme weather events, water stress and land degradation, and sea-level rise.Based on one report I read from the International Organization on Migration (Migration and Climate Change, from Oli Brown, 2008), those who STAY worry me more than those who GO. The ADB report addresses this in their chapter "Strengthening Adaptation Through Migration" (from page 46):
At the same time that an increasing number of populations find themselves forced to move because of climate change, significant numbers of populations often find themselves forced to stay. Climate change could indeed prevent the most vulnerable from migrating, as their resources will be reduced [...].I like that this report (a) doesn't raise alarms about invading hoards of poor climate migrants sweeping up on rich countries' shores (which Brown calls out as a myth in his 2008 report) and (b) points to the need to anticipate and plan for wise migration rather than waiting for it to happen on its own, possibly in ways that leave people in greater danger.
Basically, where Asian Pacific countries are concerned, good migration policies make good neighbors! This has always been true, but the pressure is on to strengthen these policies now. The report ends on this note:
Governments at all levels, regional bodies, and international organizations have a responsibility to act with urgency on this issue. They have before them an opportunity to shape a future of human mobility that promotes better, more inclusive living conditions for the people of the world’s most populous region.
You can't force a person to move out of harm's way, but you can-- and governments must-- create the conditions that allow for safe passage to a better place when the climate tells you it's time to go.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
New study: the low price of carbon puts brakes on innovation
A former professor from my public policy graduate school, Margaret Taylor (now at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), has just published a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) with her findings about how the low price of carbon in current cap-and-trade programs is leading to a slow-down on technological innovation to reduce greenhouse gases. Read it here: Innovation under cap-and-trade programs (March 12, 2012).
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
New Sea Level Visualization Tool Launched by Climate Central
On March 14, 2012, Climate Central, a climate science and climate communications-oriented NGO based in Palo Alto, CA, and Princeton, NJ, launched a new report with an on-line interactive tool for analyzing the risk from US coastal sea level rise-- Surging Seas. Its map is searchable by US postal code or city name.
And also... perhaps is has already provoked a little tongue-in-cheek future history of San Francisco after catastrophic sea level rise... From "San Francisco Archipelago" on the blog Burrito Justice, March 20, 2012: "While the submerged ruins of the Sunset and the Mission have always been popular diving attractions, many have already forgotten the locations of long-flooded streets and avenues."
Read the press release about the launch of the report and on-line tool.
Here's Climate Central's compendium of news coverage about the Surging Seas on-line tool.
And here's the scientific report published on March 14 whose methods form the basis for the Surging Seas map outputs: Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States (Strauss, Ziemlinski, Weiss and Overpeck, in Environmental Research Letters).
The first thing I notice is that Alaska and Hawaii aren't included in this map. When I searched "Alaska" it said "No affected location found." Looking back at the title of the methodological basis... "contiguous United States." Aha. (I hope someone is creating a tool like this for those states' extremely vulnerable coasts!)
Searching my hometown of Oakland, CA, it tells me: "Over 1 in 6 chance sea level rise + storm surge + tide will overtop +1ft by 2020 at nearest flood risk indicator site: San Francisco - San Francisco Bay, 13.4 miles away."
I like that it spells out in a sentence the meaning of what you see in the map that is generated. However, with any tool like this I have to wonder if someone is going to misuse it in an actuarial capacity, or use it to refuse financing to someone looking for a mortgage. The 1 in 6 risk (that's 16% -- we're not told how much over that percent, just that it's over that percent) is for a location 13 miles away; will the sea rise and overtopping happen exactly the same way all the way around the San Francisco bay? If not, that 16% might be only a VERY rough estimate. As with any simplified tool like this, we can't see the error bars or caveats.
Curious, I looked at their disclaimer. It includes this:
You are cautioned that Content should NOT be used:I hope people heed those words! In the meantime, it's a very accessible tool to provoke thinking (and hopefully motivate policy action) to protect our coasts' future under climate change.
- to assess actual coastal or other hazards, insurance requirements, or property values.
- in lieu of Flood Insurance Studies and Flood Insurance Rate Maps issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
- for navigation, permitting, zoning or other legal purposes.
And also... perhaps is has already provoked a little tongue-in-cheek future history of San Francisco after catastrophic sea level rise... From "San Francisco Archipelago" on the blog Burrito Justice, March 20, 2012: "While the submerged ruins of the Sunset and the Mission have always been popular diving attractions, many have already forgotten the locations of long-flooded streets and avenues."
Friday, March 16, 2012
The award for the best-ever 3rd-grade pun utilization in a response to a climate change impact question goes to...
...Conrad Anker -- in his interview on NPR's Science Friday today. Conrad is a mountaineer who is about to re-summit Everest, and he responded to host Ira Flatow's question about whether he's seen evidence of climate change on Everest with this:
"How does a mountain hear? Mountaineers!"
And then segued into describing what he's seen changing on the mountain. (Paths used in the 1970's have melted, the cryosphere is breaking up at high elevations, etc.)
Best non-shocking, non-alienating, 3rd grade pun-utilizing response to a question about climate change. Ever.
"How does a mountain hear? Mountaineers!"
And then segued into describing what he's seen changing on the mountain. (Paths used in the 1970's have melted, the cryosphere is breaking up at high elevations, etc.)
Best non-shocking, non-alienating, 3rd grade pun-utilizing response to a question about climate change. Ever.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Bay Area Climate Planners Respond to the New York Times
On February 17, 2012, the New York Times published an article by local Bay Area journalist John Upton entitled "Bay Area Climate Change Plans Lack Regional Cooperation." In it, the Joint Policy Committee (JPC), a multi-agency policy coordinating committee which tackles many regional issues, including climate change, is characterized as "dysfunctional" and "a waste of public money that should be disbanded" in the opinion of many local lawmakers and committee members.*
Today, Bruce Riordan, the Climate Consultant for the JPC, issued this response to Upton's article, pointing to some of the good local projects and agencies benefiting from Bay Area-level coordination (excerpted from an e-mail sent to local Bay Area climate planners):
A number of you have asked about our reaction to the New York Times piece last Friday, "Bay Area Climate Change Plans Lack Regional Cooperation." [...]
On climate adaptation/resilience—preparing our communities for the impacts from sea level rise, extreme storms, water shortages, etc.—is the Bay Area moving at the speed and scale required? No. Are we moving ahead on adaptation planning? Yes, and some of the best work is around regional cooperation. Here are three good examples.
The two-year Adapting to Rising Tides project is doing the hard work from Emeryville to Union City, learning how how cities, counties, special districts, community organizations, and the private sector should best work together to assess risk and create strategies on sea level rise and extreme storm events. Not flashy headline material, but BCDC, NOAA and the local partners are learning many valuable lessons that will eventually help all 50+ cities and 9 counties that touch the bay. By the way, have you seen the [California] King Tides Initiative photos? Fascinating.
Bay Area water agencies—we have a bunch of them for water supply, wastewater, stormwater, flood control, water quality—are currently developing the latest Integrated Regional Water Management Plan, will include a major section on climate impacts on water for the bay region. You can keep track of the IRWMP (aren't we good at catchy names?) [here at the website of the Bay Area Integrated Regional Management Plan].
The JPC's Bay Area Climate and Energy Resilience Project [...] is developing the commitment, resources and leadership that will be critical for long-term Bay Area-wide collaboration. To be completed in late May, our project will bring together the latest science with important learning on potential strategies, decision-making structures and financing approaches. The information is actually the easy part—as the NYT said we already have lots of plans and reports. We think the real work is creating great working relationships and trust, and building a structure for decision-making on the impacts like sea level rise and water shortages that MUST be made by all 101 cities and 9 counties working together. [...]
Finally, while we definitely need more coordination, not everything about climate adaptation must be done regionally. [There are] many [...] wonderful climate adaptation projects and stakeholders [happening] RIGHT NOW in the Bay Area. [...] We need to encourage more of this type of innovation and experimentation—a hallmark of the Bay Area's great history. Those of us in the "coordination business" need to focus 100% on where we can add real value to these efforts.
* Bruce Riordan responds specifically to this characterization by Upton noting "Scott Haggerty and a few others right now are calling the JPC 'dysfunctional' and a 'waste of public money that should be disbanded.' ... I would suggest it is more accurate to say that SOME local lawmakers and committee members... not MANY."
Today, Bruce Riordan, the Climate Consultant for the JPC, issued this response to Upton's article, pointing to some of the good local projects and agencies benefiting from Bay Area-level coordination (excerpted from an e-mail sent to local Bay Area climate planners):
A number of you have asked about our reaction to the New York Times piece last Friday, "Bay Area Climate Change Plans Lack Regional Cooperation." [...]
On climate adaptation/resilience—preparing our communities for the impacts from sea level rise, extreme storms, water shortages, etc.—is the Bay Area moving at the speed and scale required? No. Are we moving ahead on adaptation planning? Yes, and some of the best work is around regional cooperation. Here are three good examples.
The two-year Adapting to Rising Tides project is doing the hard work from Emeryville to Union City, learning how how cities, counties, special districts, community organizations, and the private sector should best work together to assess risk and create strategies on sea level rise and extreme storm events. Not flashy headline material, but BCDC, NOAA and the local partners are learning many valuable lessons that will eventually help all 50+ cities and 9 counties that touch the bay. By the way, have you seen the [California] King Tides Initiative photos? Fascinating.
Bay Area water agencies—we have a bunch of them for water supply, wastewater, stormwater, flood control, water quality—are currently developing the latest Integrated Regional Water Management Plan, will include a major section on climate impacts on water for the bay region. You can keep track of the IRWMP (aren't we good at catchy names?) [here at the website of the Bay Area Integrated Regional Management Plan].
The JPC's Bay Area Climate and Energy Resilience Project [...] is developing the commitment, resources and leadership that will be critical for long-term Bay Area-wide collaboration. To be completed in late May, our project will bring together the latest science with important learning on potential strategies, decision-making structures and financing approaches. The information is actually the easy part—as the NYT said we already have lots of plans and reports. We think the real work is creating great working relationships and trust, and building a structure for decision-making on the impacts like sea level rise and water shortages that MUST be made by all 101 cities and 9 counties working together. [...]
Finally, while we definitely need more coordination, not everything about climate adaptation must be done regionally. [There are] many [...] wonderful climate adaptation projects and stakeholders [happening] RIGHT NOW in the Bay Area. [...] We need to encourage more of this type of innovation and experimentation—a hallmark of the Bay Area's great history. Those of us in the "coordination business" need to focus 100% on where we can add real value to these efforts.
* Bruce Riordan responds specifically to this characterization by Upton noting "Scott Haggerty and a few others right now are calling the JPC 'dysfunctional' and a 'waste of public money that should be disbanded.' ... I would suggest it is more accurate to say that SOME local lawmakers and committee members... not MANY."
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Not climate-change specific, but still important: 8th Environmental Justice Symposium at Berkeley Law
Check it out-- the UC Berkeley School of Law is hosting the 8th Annual Environmental Justice Symposium, sponsored by the Center for Law, Energy and the Environment (CLEE). The theme this year is "Overcoming Invisibility: Environmental Justice in Rural America."
I was born and raised in a rural, isolated, economically depressed area in Northern New York, and I am always mentally testing proposals for climate change adaptation as to whether they are designed only for city-dwellers, or whether they might be adopted to benefit rural populations. Laurel Firestone from the Community Water Center in the Central Valley is someone I respect greatly as someone thinking beyond city-oriented interventions for access to water under climate change in California. She is presenting at this conference on March 1.
I'm not sure why the schedule of events isn't posted on CLEE's site, but it was circulated by means of a semi-private mailing list I'm on, so here you go (note that the closing talk on March 2 is already full, though a wait list has been started):
-- This EJ Symposium at the Berkeley Law School is free, including food. --
WHAT: THE 8TH ANNUAL ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE SYMPOSIUM
WHEN: February 27th - March 2nd, 12:45-2:00pm each day
WHY: Rural communities and the environmental justice issues that impact these areas are often overlooked. We are bringing together organizers, attorneys, and community members who work in these areas to drop some knowledge, share their experiences, and kick off what we hope will be great ongoing discussions.
Save the date for SEEJ's upcoming Environmental Justice Symposium! The topic this year is "Overcoming Invisibility: Environmental Justice in Rural America." Join us for a week of lunchtime panel discussions on important environmental justice issues impacting rural communities. Lunch will be provided each day and all events are free and open to the public. See below for a description of events and speakers each day. We look forward to seeing you there and please pass on the information to your networks!
Schedule for the Week:
*Monday, February 27, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105.*
KEYNOTE EVENT: THE STRUGGLE FOR CLEAN ENERGY ON TRIBAL LANDS
Leaders from the Navajo Nation-- Anna Rondon (New Energy Economy), Wahleah Jones (Black Mesa Water Coalition), Brad Bartlett (Western Energy Justice Project), and Caitlin Sislin (Women's Earth Alliance)—will discuss the struggle against mining and towards clean energy alternatives on tribal lands.
~~~Lunch provided from Cafe Gratitude~~~
*Tuesday, February 28, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 295.*
GENDER, RACE, AND POWER IN THE EJ MOVEMENT
This event brings together female attorneys, advocates and organizers of color to explore ways gender and race have impacted women's experiences and strategies leading struggles for environmental and economic justice in rural America. Come participate in a conversation with Anna Rondon (New Energy Economy) and Felicia Espinosa (California Rural Legal Assistance), moderated by Tracy Perkins (U.C. Santa Cruz).
~~~Lunch provided from Cheeseboard~~~
*Wednesday, February 29, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105.*
WASTING THE VALLEY: DISCRIMINATORY SITING OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL
While cities produce most of California's waste, rural areas bear the brunt of it. All three of the state's Class I hazardous waste dumps are sited near low-income, unincorporated communities. Ingrid Brostrom, an attorney with the Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment, and Maricela Mares-Alatorre, a community activist and organizer, will discuss the ongoing struggle in Kettleman City, a rural community near a 1,600-acre hazardous and municipal solid waste dump that has experienced a rash of severe birth defects and infant deaths over the past several years.
~~~Lunch provided from Mandela Food Cooperative~~~
*Thursday, March 1, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105*
NOT A DROP TO DRINK: THE STRUGGLE FOR POTABLE WATER IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
Veronica & Joanna Mendoza, a mother and daughter from Cutler, who are also representing the AGUA Coalition and Vecinos Unidos will join Laurel Firestone and Carolina Balazs from the Community Water Center on a panel to discuss disparities in access to clean drinking water in the Central Valley.
~~~Lunch provided from Sunrise Deli Falafel~~~
*Friday, March 2, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Dean’s Conf. Rm.*
A CALL TO ACTION IN RURAL AMERICA
Leaders from major organizations in the Central Valley such as California Rural Legal Assistance and Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment will engage in a dialogue with students and professors about Boalt’s current and future commitment to rural issues. Lisa Pruitt from UC Davis Law will moderate.
[LIMITED SEATING. PLEASE RSVP TO: shainahyder-- at --fulbrightmail.org]
~~~Lunch provided from Gregiore~~~
I was born and raised in a rural, isolated, economically depressed area in Northern New York, and I am always mentally testing proposals for climate change adaptation as to whether they are designed only for city-dwellers, or whether they might be adopted to benefit rural populations. Laurel Firestone from the Community Water Center in the Central Valley is someone I respect greatly as someone thinking beyond city-oriented interventions for access to water under climate change in California. She is presenting at this conference on March 1.
I'm not sure why the schedule of events isn't posted on CLEE's site, but it was circulated by means of a semi-private mailing list I'm on, so here you go (note that the closing talk on March 2 is already full, though a wait list has been started):
-- This EJ Symposium at the Berkeley Law School is free, including food. --
WHAT: THE 8TH ANNUAL ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE SYMPOSIUM
WHEN: February 27th - March 2nd, 12:45-2:00pm each day
WHY: Rural communities and the environmental justice issues that impact these areas are often overlooked. We are bringing together organizers, attorneys, and community members who work in these areas to drop some knowledge, share their experiences, and kick off what we hope will be great ongoing discussions.
Save the date for SEEJ's upcoming Environmental Justice Symposium! The topic this year is "Overcoming Invisibility: Environmental Justice in Rural America." Join us for a week of lunchtime panel discussions on important environmental justice issues impacting rural communities. Lunch will be provided each day and all events are free and open to the public. See below for a description of events and speakers each day. We look forward to seeing you there and please pass on the information to your networks!
Schedule for the Week:
*Monday, February 27, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105.*
KEYNOTE EVENT: THE STRUGGLE FOR CLEAN ENERGY ON TRIBAL LANDS
Leaders from the Navajo Nation-- Anna Rondon (New Energy Economy), Wahleah Jones (Black Mesa Water Coalition), Brad Bartlett (Western Energy Justice Project), and Caitlin Sislin (Women's Earth Alliance)—will discuss the struggle against mining and towards clean energy alternatives on tribal lands.
~~~Lunch provided from Cafe Gratitude~~~
*Tuesday, February 28, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 295.*
GENDER, RACE, AND POWER IN THE EJ MOVEMENT
This event brings together female attorneys, advocates and organizers of color to explore ways gender and race have impacted women's experiences and strategies leading struggles for environmental and economic justice in rural America. Come participate in a conversation with Anna Rondon (New Energy Economy) and Felicia Espinosa (California Rural Legal Assistance), moderated by Tracy Perkins (U.C. Santa Cruz).
~~~Lunch provided from Cheeseboard~~~
*Wednesday, February 29, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105.*
WASTING THE VALLEY: DISCRIMINATORY SITING OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL
While cities produce most of California's waste, rural areas bear the brunt of it. All three of the state's Class I hazardous waste dumps are sited near low-income, unincorporated communities. Ingrid Brostrom, an attorney with the Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment, and Maricela Mares-Alatorre, a community activist and organizer, will discuss the ongoing struggle in Kettleman City, a rural community near a 1,600-acre hazardous and municipal solid waste dump that has experienced a rash of severe birth defects and infant deaths over the past several years.
~~~Lunch provided from Mandela Food Cooperative~~~
*Thursday, March 1, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105*
NOT A DROP TO DRINK: THE STRUGGLE FOR POTABLE WATER IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
Veronica & Joanna Mendoza, a mother and daughter from Cutler, who are also representing the AGUA Coalition and Vecinos Unidos will join Laurel Firestone and Carolina Balazs from the Community Water Center on a panel to discuss disparities in access to clean drinking water in the Central Valley.
~~~Lunch provided from Sunrise Deli Falafel~~~
*Friday, March 2, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Dean’s Conf. Rm.*
A CALL TO ACTION IN RURAL AMERICA
Leaders from major organizations in the Central Valley such as California Rural Legal Assistance and Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment will engage in a dialogue with students and professors about Boalt’s current and future commitment to rural issues. Lisa Pruitt from UC Davis Law will moderate.
[LIMITED SEATING. PLEASE RSVP TO: shainahyder-- at --fulbrightmail.org]
~~~Lunch provided from Gregiore~~~
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