It appears that excellent data collected by one family of scientists living and working on Lake Baikal, Russia, may provide clues to how climate variability affects many diverse species, according to Science Daly ("World's Largest Lake Sheds Light on Ecosystem Responses to Climate Variability" - by Marianne V. Moore, Feb. 18, 2011).
Detailed and frequent measurements of Lake Baikal conditions show correlations between Baikal's temperature and "El Niño indices, reflecting sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean tens of thousands of kilometers away." Measurements also show a strong influence on Baikal conditions by the Pacific Ocean pressure fields described by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
"Remarkably, the temperature record that reflects all these climate messages was collected by three generations of a single family of Siberian scientists, from 1946 to the present, and the correlation of temperature with atmospheric dynamics is further confirmation that this data set is of exceptionally high quality," said [Steve] Katz [of NOAA's Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary]. "This consistent dedication to understanding one of the world's most majestic lakes helps us understand not only the dynamics of Lake Baikal over the past 60 years, but also to recognize future scenarios for Lake Baikal. The statistical approach may be used for similar questions in other ecosystems, although we recognize that the exceptional quality and length of the Baikal data was one of the keys to our success."
Lake Baikal - called the "Pearl of Siberia" - is the world's oldest and deepest lake. It is largest freshwater lake in the world, and home to the Nerpa, one of only three known freshwater seals.
I'd like to point out that those of us working in the increasingly embattled budgetary environment of the public university system in California should look to these scientists working on Baikal for inspiration. They have faced worse barriers than we can imagine working through the funding environment of the Russian Academy of Sciences from 1946 to the present. That family undoubtedly suffered deprivations to maintain their work which many U.S. researchers would not tolerate. My work with those defending the health of Lake Baikal at the small non-profit Pacific Environment has instilled in me a deep respect for the sheer tenacity of Russian scientists. And there's nothing like the passion of a Russian scientist-turned-activist.
Read about Pacific Environment's work protecting Lake Baikal, "the Galapagos of Russia."
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Dispatch from Western Australia- Lessons for California
Mark Lubell, an Associate Professor at the Dept. of Environmental Science and Policy at UC Davis, is visiting Western Australia and writing on his department's blog about that country's water management lessons for California. Read his latest post: "Dispatch: Climate Adaptation in Southern California...oops...I mean Perth, Western Australia."
According to his departmental bio, Mark studies human behavior and the role of governance institutions in solving collective action problems and facilitating cooperation. His bottom line in this latest post:
Australia appears to have a far more centralized set of environmental management institutions than California, with centralization at the level of state agencies. This is a nuanced statement because in another way natural resource management is decentralized like in California--the national government gives all the responsibility to the states (for example, the states manage the national parks). But in terms of regional adaptation, the state agencies have a lot of centralized control. The chief example is the Water Corporation, which manages all of the water infrastructure and delivers water to households. The local governments don't provide the water themselves, and in fact the local governments have far less control over their resources than cities and counties in the US. So the number of actors and policy games involved with climate adaptation is smaller and more centralized in [Western Australia], which makes for an interesting comparison and possibly a better ability to actually get things done.
I wonder-- what conditions could lead to the creation of a state "Water Corporation" like this in California? Would people cede control at the prospect of trucking in bottled water in a severe drought? Adelaide, Australia, faced this prospect in 2009.
I also wonder how the Australian Water Corporation handles water rates, and if they have anything like a "universal lifeline" rate for low-income households to provide the poor access to water in a drought. It appears from the Water Corporation's website that seniors and pensioners can get "a substantial rebate or concession" on their water bills. Otherwise, it seems water users can negotiate a payment plan, but not for a reduced rate.
Some utility districts in California offer a low-income water rate, but from what I know most don't. Again, I wonder what it would take for California to mandate a water rate for the poor.
--- An aside:
The idea of a universal lifeline rate for water isn't my own idea, incidentally. The Pacific Institute's Peter Gleick, speaking at a UNESCO conference in 1998:
Water is a social good-- we all agree on that. People should pay for its use, to encourage efficiency and as a recognition of its value. But perhaps a universal 'lifeline rate' should be established, and anything above that should be priced much higher. To water a lawn, for example, should be truly expensive.
(As quoted in Water: The Fate of Our Most Precious Resource by Marq De Villiers, 2001.)
According to his departmental bio, Mark studies human behavior and the role of governance institutions in solving collective action problems and facilitating cooperation. His bottom line in this latest post:
Australia appears to have a far more centralized set of environmental management institutions than California, with centralization at the level of state agencies. This is a nuanced statement because in another way natural resource management is decentralized like in California--the national government gives all the responsibility to the states (for example, the states manage the national parks). But in terms of regional adaptation, the state agencies have a lot of centralized control. The chief example is the Water Corporation, which manages all of the water infrastructure and delivers water to households. The local governments don't provide the water themselves, and in fact the local governments have far less control over their resources than cities and counties in the US. So the number of actors and policy games involved with climate adaptation is smaller and more centralized in [Western Australia], which makes for an interesting comparison and possibly a better ability to actually get things done.
I wonder-- what conditions could lead to the creation of a state "Water Corporation" like this in California? Would people cede control at the prospect of trucking in bottled water in a severe drought? Adelaide, Australia, faced this prospect in 2009.
I also wonder how the Australian Water Corporation handles water rates, and if they have anything like a "universal lifeline" rate for low-income households to provide the poor access to water in a drought. It appears from the Water Corporation's website that seniors and pensioners can get "a substantial rebate or concession" on their water bills. Otherwise, it seems water users can negotiate a payment plan, but not for a reduced rate.
Some utility districts in California offer a low-income water rate, but from what I know most don't. Again, I wonder what it would take for California to mandate a water rate for the poor.
--- An aside:
The idea of a universal lifeline rate for water isn't my own idea, incidentally. The Pacific Institute's Peter Gleick, speaking at a UNESCO conference in 1998:
Water is a social good-- we all agree on that. People should pay for its use, to encourage efficiency and as a recognition of its value. But perhaps a universal 'lifeline rate' should be established, and anything above that should be priced much higher. To water a lawn, for example, should be truly expensive.
(As quoted in Water: The Fate of Our Most Precious Resource by Marq De Villiers, 2001.)
Thursday, February 24, 2011
San Luis Obispo County Climate Plan: "We've never been here before."
Only two counties in the State of California have detailed climate change adaptation plans in the works: San Luis Obispo is one. Last Thursday they held a community workshop on the plan. It is primarily a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but I know researchers focused on climate adaptation have been involved in this planning process, including one of California's leading lights on adaptation Susanne Moser.
From the article "County to Fight Against Climate Change" (David Sneed, Feb. 13, 2011, SanLuisObispo.com - The Tribune):
The county is ...one of only two in California to have had a detailed climate adaptation study done. It looked at the various impacts climate change will have on the county and how to prepare for them.
The study was headed by the Local Government Commission, an organization that advocates centralized community and economic planning based on Ahwahnee Indian principles.
“San Luis Obispo County will be setting the marker for other communities,” [Michael] Boswell [a Cal Poly city planning professor] said.
Environmentalist and government watchdog Eric Greening of Atascadero urged county planners to concentrate on reducing emissions rather than adaptation.
“We’ve got to stop being so full of ourselves,” he said. “We haven’t the faintest idea what we are going to have to do to adapt to climate change. We’ve never been here before.”
It sounds like a good reason why you should focus on BOTH adaptation and reducing emissions (and, personally, I believe reducing emissions is a long-term adaptation strategy).
The article doesn't state which is the other California state county creating a detailed adaptation plan, but here is a November 2010 list (PDF) compiled by the Governor's Office of Planning and Research (OPR) with links to 63 different California city and county, and 36 relevant non-Californian climate planning efforts. Most of these are concerning greenhouse gas reductions, but those are the plans where you can find most U.S. adaptation efforts.
Susanne Moser is working with both Fresno and San Luis Obispo counties on their adaptation plans, so this article might be referring to Fresno as the other county with a plan.
Read more about Fresno's adaptation plan here.
Read more about the San Luis Obispo adaptation plan here.
Read more about Susanne Moser's work supporting climate adaptation in California here.
P.S. If you don't know what the Ahwahnee Principles are, you are probably not a city planner. This author incorrectly refers to them as the Ahwahnee Indian Principles. They are a modern (1991) invention of some California city planners at the Ahwahnee Hotel in Yosemite. Read more about their invention here.
The principles basically emphasize developing neighborhoods so that homes are located within walking distance of retail shops, schools, and public transit, and other social and economic efficiency principles. No "Ahwahnee Indians" were involved in the drafting of the principles, from what I can discern.
Read the “Ahwahnee Principles for Climate Change" here (PDF), published in 2008 by the Local Government Commission. Sacramento, CA.
From the article "County to Fight Against Climate Change" (David Sneed, Feb. 13, 2011, SanLuisObispo.com - The Tribune):
The county is ...one of only two in California to have had a detailed climate adaptation study done. It looked at the various impacts climate change will have on the county and how to prepare for them.
The study was headed by the Local Government Commission, an organization that advocates centralized community and economic planning based on Ahwahnee Indian principles.
“San Luis Obispo County will be setting the marker for other communities,” [Michael] Boswell [a Cal Poly city planning professor] said.
Environmentalist and government watchdog Eric Greening of Atascadero urged county planners to concentrate on reducing emissions rather than adaptation.
“We’ve got to stop being so full of ourselves,” he said. “We haven’t the faintest idea what we are going to have to do to adapt to climate change. We’ve never been here before.”
It sounds like a good reason why you should focus on BOTH adaptation and reducing emissions (and, personally, I believe reducing emissions is a long-term adaptation strategy).
The article doesn't state which is the other California state county creating a detailed adaptation plan, but here is a November 2010 list (PDF) compiled by the Governor's Office of Planning and Research (OPR) with links to 63 different California city and county, and 36 relevant non-Californian climate planning efforts. Most of these are concerning greenhouse gas reductions, but those are the plans where you can find most U.S. adaptation efforts.
Susanne Moser is working with both Fresno and San Luis Obispo counties on their adaptation plans, so this article might be referring to Fresno as the other county with a plan.
Read more about Fresno's adaptation plan here.
Read more about the San Luis Obispo adaptation plan here.
Read more about Susanne Moser's work supporting climate adaptation in California here.
P.S. If you don't know what the Ahwahnee Principles are, you are probably not a city planner. This author incorrectly refers to them as the Ahwahnee Indian Principles. They are a modern (1991) invention of some California city planners at the Ahwahnee Hotel in Yosemite. Read more about their invention here.
The principles basically emphasize developing neighborhoods so that homes are located within walking distance of retail shops, schools, and public transit, and other social and economic efficiency principles. No "Ahwahnee Indians" were involved in the drafting of the principles, from what I can discern.
Read the “Ahwahnee Principles for Climate Change" here (PDF), published in 2008 by the Local Government Commission. Sacramento, CA.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Lessons from the Developing World Come to Chicago
This morning on NPR I heard a story about the sale of snow derivatives by the Chicago Weather Brokerage on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). This is the first I've heard of what amounts to weather-indexed insurance in the U.S. It's apparently been around 2 years, and -- as of Feb. 2, 2011-- they are now selling rain derivatives. Payouts are triggered by measurements at pre-set weather stations (Chicago's O'Hare Airport; Minneapolis/St. Paul; Detroit; Boston; and New York's LaGuardia Airport and Central Park). The pay-out amount is set in advance, and depends on what kind of policy you get (i.e., betting on the snow being above average or below average). This is generally how weather-indexed insurance works.
Listen to another NPR story from "Marketplace" on snow derivatives.
Weather-indexed insurance is usually designed to issue quick, pre-set payouts in the case of severe drought using the banks where farmers already have loans. They were rolled out most systematically first in India, and then spread to Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. It's historically a developing-world mechanism designed to quickly smooth things out for farmers who would otherwise have to sell their hard assets in the case of drought.
The benefit of weather-indexed insurance? It pays quickly-- and speed is key when you are trying to survive a total crop loss.
The drawback? The payout might not be sufficient to cover your losses. And, from the insurer's point of view, your weather-indexed policy holder might not live anywhere near the weather station being used to trigger the pay-out, so the drought might not have affected them at all, leading to overpayment.
But farmers might prefer a weather-indexed payout in any case, because the traditional claim-based insurance policy requires a time-intensive assessment process, and pay-outs might be late or gradual, requiring negotiation-- a problem, like climate change impacts, not restricted to the developing world.
Listen to another NPR story from "Marketplace" on snow derivatives.
Weather-indexed insurance is usually designed to issue quick, pre-set payouts in the case of severe drought using the banks where farmers already have loans. They were rolled out most systematically first in India, and then spread to Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. It's historically a developing-world mechanism designed to quickly smooth things out for farmers who would otherwise have to sell their hard assets in the case of drought.
The benefit of weather-indexed insurance? It pays quickly-- and speed is key when you are trying to survive a total crop loss.
The drawback? The payout might not be sufficient to cover your losses. And, from the insurer's point of view, your weather-indexed policy holder might not live anywhere near the weather station being used to trigger the pay-out, so the drought might not have affected them at all, leading to overpayment.
But farmers might prefer a weather-indexed payout in any case, because the traditional claim-based insurance policy requires a time-intensive assessment process, and pay-outs might be late or gradual, requiring negotiation-- a problem, like climate change impacts, not restricted to the developing world.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Climate Change, Russia's Fires and the Present Uprising in Egypt
When Russia's fires last year led to the curtailing of wheat exports, it was predicted that world food prices would spike and inflame political conflict.
Climate events inflating food prices is just one example of how climate change is going to drive political conflict. Water and energy are also going to see price spikes that drive conflict.
Right now as we watch Egyptians struggle to transition from totalitarianism to democracy, remember that one of the main sparks behind this revolution was not some new societal level of enlightenment, but a new level of desperation driven by food prices.
On Feb. 3, 2011, PRI's Peter Thomson wrote about the Russia fire/ wheat scarcity/ revolution connection.
From "High food prices in Egypt and climate change":
Food price inflation in Egypt was over 20 percent last year. In particular, there’s been a big squeeze from the rising global price of wheat. New York global investment manager Vincent Truglia says depending on how you measure it, the price of wheat went up between 50 and 70 percent in 2010.
[...]
Egypt is among the world’s largest importers of wheat, and the global wheat market received a number of nasty shocks recently. The worst came last summer, when Russia was hit by an unprecedented drought and heat wave that destroyed 40 percent of its wheat harvest.
Russia abruptly banned exports, and Egypt, which had just signed a big wheat deal with Russia, was left scrambling.
The Egyptian government has tried to keep a lid on wheat prices through subsidies and rationing. But Truglia says anxiety over food prices is the key problem facing Egypt today.
And some look further up the chain of events, and trace the problem at least in part to climate change.
“I think we are seeing some of the early effects of climate change on food security,” says veteran environmental analyst Lester Brown, of the Earth Policy Institute. In particular, Brown says the heat wave that led to the collapse of Russia’s wheat harvest was no ordinary weather event.
“If someone had told me that there was likely to be a heat wave in Russia in which the average temperature would be 14 degrees Fahrenheit above the norm — that’s pushing the envelope. I mean FOUR degrees would be a lot.”
[...]
Vicken Checherian, writing for Opendemocracy.net, wrote on Jan. 26, 2011 (The Arab Crisis: Food, Energy, Water, Justice), about other nearby countries taking measures to try to prevent food price-driven revolution: "Even Saudi Arabia is taking precautions; the kingdom aims to double its wheat reserves to 1.4 million tons, enough to satisfy demand for a year." He also points out that food price-driven revolution hasn't historically led to democracy in the region:
The rise of food and energy prices sparked popular demonstrations in Algeria in 1988 and Jordan in 1989. When the authorities could not suppress the demonstrations by pure repression, and could not reduce the prices for lack of means, they chose to open up a closed political system: single-party rule was ended in Algeria in 1989, and in Jordan restrictions on the media and the work of political parties were lifted. In neither case did this political opening lead to sustainable institutions and democratisation: Algeria eventually degenerated into a fratricidal war, Jordan recalled the old habits once the wave of contestation died down.
Let's hope for a better outcome for Egypt.
Climate events inflating food prices is just one example of how climate change is going to drive political conflict. Water and energy are also going to see price spikes that drive conflict.
Right now as we watch Egyptians struggle to transition from totalitarianism to democracy, remember that one of the main sparks behind this revolution was not some new societal level of enlightenment, but a new level of desperation driven by food prices.
On Feb. 3, 2011, PRI's Peter Thomson wrote about the Russia fire/ wheat scarcity/ revolution connection.
From "High food prices in Egypt and climate change":
Food price inflation in Egypt was over 20 percent last year. In particular, there’s been a big squeeze from the rising global price of wheat. New York global investment manager Vincent Truglia says depending on how you measure it, the price of wheat went up between 50 and 70 percent in 2010.
[...]
Egypt is among the world’s largest importers of wheat, and the global wheat market received a number of nasty shocks recently. The worst came last summer, when Russia was hit by an unprecedented drought and heat wave that destroyed 40 percent of its wheat harvest.
Russia abruptly banned exports, and Egypt, which had just signed a big wheat deal with Russia, was left scrambling.
The Egyptian government has tried to keep a lid on wheat prices through subsidies and rationing. But Truglia says anxiety over food prices is the key problem facing Egypt today.
And some look further up the chain of events, and trace the problem at least in part to climate change.
“I think we are seeing some of the early effects of climate change on food security,” says veteran environmental analyst Lester Brown, of the Earth Policy Institute. In particular, Brown says the heat wave that led to the collapse of Russia’s wheat harvest was no ordinary weather event.
“If someone had told me that there was likely to be a heat wave in Russia in which the average temperature would be 14 degrees Fahrenheit above the norm — that’s pushing the envelope. I mean FOUR degrees would be a lot.”
[...]
Vicken Checherian, writing for Opendemocracy.net, wrote on Jan. 26, 2011 (The Arab Crisis: Food, Energy, Water, Justice), about other nearby countries taking measures to try to prevent food price-driven revolution: "Even Saudi Arabia is taking precautions; the kingdom aims to double its wheat reserves to 1.4 million tons, enough to satisfy demand for a year." He also points out that food price-driven revolution hasn't historically led to democracy in the region:
The rise of food and energy prices sparked popular demonstrations in Algeria in 1988 and Jordan in 1989. When the authorities could not suppress the demonstrations by pure repression, and could not reduce the prices for lack of means, they chose to open up a closed political system: single-party rule was ended in Algeria in 1989, and in Jordan restrictions on the media and the work of political parties were lifted. In neither case did this political opening lead to sustainable institutions and democratisation: Algeria eventually degenerated into a fratricidal war, Jordan recalled the old habits once the wave of contestation died down.
Let's hope for a better outcome for Egypt.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
