New study: the low price of carbon puts brakes on innovation

A former professor from my public policy graduate school, Margaret Taylor (now at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), has just published a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) with her findings about how the low price of carbon in current cap-and-trade programs is leading to a slow-down on technological innovation to reduce greenhouse gases. Read it here: Innovation under cap-and-trade programs (March 12, 2012).

New Sea Level Visualization Tool Launched by Climate Central

On March 14, 2012, Climate Central, a climate science and climate communications-oriented NGO based in Palo Alto, CA, and Princeton, NJ, launched a new report with an on-line interactive tool for analyzing the risk from US coastal sea level rise-- Surging Seas. Its map is searchable by US postal code or city name.

Read the press release about the launch of the report and on-line tool.

Here's Climate Central's compendium of news coverage about the Surging Seas on-line tool.

And here's the scientific report published on March 14 whose methods form the basis for the Surging Seas map outputs: Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States (Strauss, Ziemlinski, Weiss and Overpeck, in Environmental Research Letters).

The first thing I notice is that Alaska and Hawaii aren't included in this map. When I searched "Alaska" it said "No affected location found." Looking back at the title of the methodological basis... "contiguous United States." Aha. (I hope someone is creating a tool like this for those states' extremely vulnerable coasts!)

Searching my hometown of Oakland, CA, it tells me: "Over 1 in 6 chance sea level rise + storm surge + tide will overtop +1ft by 2020 at nearest flood risk indicator site: San Francisco - San Francisco Bay, 13.4 miles away." 

I like that it spells out in a sentence the meaning of what you see in the map that is generated. However, with any tool like this I have to wonder if someone is going to misuse it in an actuarial capacity, or use it to refuse financing to someone looking for a mortgage. The 1 in 6 risk (that's 16% -- we're not told how much over that percent, just that it's over that percent) is for a location 13 miles away; will the sea rise and overtopping happen exactly the same way all the way around the San Francisco bay? If not, that 16% might be only a VERY rough estimate. As with any simplified tool like this, we can't see the error bars or caveats. 

Curious, I looked at their disclaimer. It includes this:

You are cautioned that Content should NOT be used:

• to assess actual coastal or other hazards, insurance requirements, or property values.

• in lieu of Flood Insurance Studies and Flood Insurance Rate Maps issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

• for navigation, permitting, zoning or other legal purposes.

I hope people heed those words! In the meantime, it's a very accessible tool to provoke thinking (and hopefully motivate policy action) to protect our coasts' future under climate change.

And also... perhaps is has already provoked a little tongue-in-cheek future history of San Francisco after catastrophic sea level rise... From "San Francisco Archipelago" on the blog Burrito Justice, March 20, 2012: "While the submerged ruins of the Sunset and the Mission have always been popular diving attractions, many have already forgotten the locations of long-flooded streets and avenues."

The award for the best-ever 3rd-grade pun utilization in a response to a climate change impact question goes to...

...Conrad Anker -- in his interview on NPR's Science Friday today. Conrad is a mountaineer who is about to re-summit Everest, and he responded to host Ira Flatow's question about whether he's seen evidence of climate change on Everest with this:

"How does a mountain hear? Mountaineers!"

And then segued into describing what he's seen changing on the mountain. (Paths used in the 1970's have melted, the cryosphere is breaking up at high elevations, etc.)

Best non-shocking, non-alienating, 3rd grade pun-utilizing response to a question about climate change. Ever.

Bay Area Climate Planners Respond to the New York Times

On February 17, 2012, the New York Times published an article by local Bay Area journalist John Upton entitled "Bay Area Climate Change Plans Lack Regional Cooperation." In it, the Joint Policy Committee (JPC), a multi-agency policy coordinating committee which tackles many regional issues, including climate change, is characterized as "dysfunctional" and "a waste of public money that should be disbanded" in the opinion of many local lawmakers and committee members.*

Today, Bruce Riordan, the Climate Consultant for the JPC, issued this response to Upton's article, pointing to some of the good local projects and agencies benefiting from Bay Area-level coordination (excerpted from an e-mail sent to local Bay Area climate planners):

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A number of you have asked about our reaction to the New York Times piece last Friday, "Bay Area Climate Change Plans Lack Regional Cooperation." [...]

On climate adaptation/resilience—preparing our communities for the impacts from sea level rise, extreme storms, water shortages, etc.—is the Bay Area moving at the speed and scale required? No. Are we moving ahead on adaptation planning? Yes, and some of the best work is around regional cooperation. Here are three good examples.

The two-year Adapting to Rising Tides project is doing the hard work from Emeryville to Union City, learning how how cities, counties, special districts, community organizations, and the private sector should best work together to assess risk and create strategies on sea level rise and extreme storm events. Not flashy headline material, but BCDC, NOAA and the local partners are learning many valuable lessons that will eventually help all 50+ cities and 9 counties that touch the bay. By the way, have you seen the [California] King Tides Initiative photos? Fascinating.

Bay Area water agencies—we have a bunch of them for water supply, wastewater, stormwater, flood control, water quality—are currently developing the latest Integrated Regional Water Management Plan, will include a major section on climate impacts on water for the bay region. You can keep track of the IRWMP (aren't we good at catchy names?) [here at the website of the Bay Area Integrated Regional Management Plan].

The JPC's Bay Area Climate and Energy Resilience Project [...] is developing the commitment, resources and leadership that will be critical for long-term Bay Area-wide collaboration. To be completed in late May, our project will bring together the latest science with important learning on potential strategies, decision-making structures and financing approaches. The information is actually the easy part—as the NYT said we already have lots of plans and reports. We think the real work is creating great working relationships and trust, and building a structure for decision-making on the impacts like sea level rise and water shortages that MUST be made by all 101 cities and 9 counties working together. [...]

Finally, while we definitely need more coordination, not everything about climate adaptation must be done regionally. [There are] many [...] wonderful climate adaptation projects and stakeholders [happening] RIGHT NOW in the Bay Area. [...] We need to encourage more of this type of innovation and experimentation—a hallmark of the Bay Area's great history. Those of us in the "coordination business" need to focus 100% on where we can add real value to these efforts.

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* Bruce Riordan responds specifically to this characterization by Upton noting "Scott Haggerty and a few others right now are calling the JPC 'dysfunctional' and a 'waste of public money that should be disbanded.' ... I would suggest it is more accurate to say that SOME local lawmakers and committee members... not MANY."

Not climate-change specific, but still important: 8th Environmental Justice Symposium at Berkeley Law

Check it out-- the UC Berkeley School of Law is hosting the 8th Annual Environmental Justice Symposium, sponsored by the Center for Law, Energy and the Environment (CLEE). The theme this year is "Overcoming Invisibility: Environmental Justice in Rural America."

I was born and raised in a rural, isolated, economically depressed area in Northern New York, and I am always mentally testing proposals for climate change adaptation as to whether they are designed only for city-dwellers, or whether they might be adopted to benefit rural populations. Laurel Firestone from the Community Water Center in the Central Valley is someone I respect greatly as someone thinking beyond city-oriented interventions for access to water under climate change in California. She is presenting at this conference on March 1.

I'm not sure why the schedule of events isn't posted on CLEE's site, but it was circulated by means of a semi-private mailing list I'm on, so here you go (note that the closing talk on March 2 is already full, though a wait list has been started):

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-- This EJ Symposium at the Berkeley Law School is free, including food. --

WHAT: THE 8TH ANNUAL ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE SYMPOSIUM
WHEN: February 27th - March 2nd, 12:45-2:00pm each day
WHY: Rural communities and the environmental justice issues that impact these areas are often overlooked. We are bringing together organizers, attorneys, and community members who work in these areas to drop some knowledge, share their experiences, and kick off what we hope will be great ongoing discussions.

Save the date for SEEJ's upcoming Environmental Justice Symposium! The topic this year is "Overcoming Invisibility: Environmental Justice in Rural America." Join us for a week of lunchtime panel discussions on important environmental justice issues impacting rural communities. Lunch will be provided each day and all events are free and open to the public. See below for a description of events and speakers each day. We look forward to seeing you there and please pass on the information to your networks!

Schedule for the Week:

*Monday, February 27, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105.*
KEYNOTE EVENT: THE STRUGGLE FOR CLEAN ENERGY ON TRIBAL LANDS
Leaders from the Navajo Nation-- Anna Rondon (New Energy Economy), Wahleah Jones (Black Mesa Water Coalition), Brad Bartlett (Western Energy Justice Project), and Caitlin Sislin (Women's Earth Alliance)—will discuss the struggle against mining and towards clean energy alternatives on tribal lands.
~~~Lunch provided from Cafe Gratitude~~~

*Tuesday, February 28, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 295.*
GENDER, RACE, AND POWER IN THE EJ MOVEMENT
This event brings together female attorneys, advocates and organizers of color to explore ways gender and race have impacted women's experiences and strategies leading struggles for environmental and economic justice in rural America. Come participate in a conversation with Anna Rondon (New Energy Economy) and Felicia Espinosa (California Rural Legal Assistance), moderated by Tracy Perkins (U.C. Santa Cruz).
~~~Lunch provided from Cheeseboard~~~

*Wednesday, February 29, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105.*
WASTING THE VALLEY: DISCRIMINATORY SITING OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL
While cities produce most of California's waste, rural areas bear the brunt of it. All three of the state's Class I hazardous waste dumps are sited near low-income, unincorporated communities. Ingrid Brostrom, an attorney with the Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment, and Maricela Mares-Alatorre, a community activist and organizer, will discuss the ongoing struggle in Kettleman City, a rural community near a 1,600-acre hazardous and municipal solid waste dump that has experienced a rash of severe birth defects and infant deaths over the past several years.
~~~Lunch provided from Mandela Food Cooperative~~~

*Thursday, March 1, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Room 105*
NOT A DROP TO DRINK: THE STRUGGLE FOR POTABLE WATER IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
Veronica & Joanna Mendoza, a mother and daughter from Cutler, who are also representing the AGUA Coalition and Vecinos Unidos will join Laurel Firestone and Carolina Balazs from the Community Water Center on a panel to discuss disparities in access to clean drinking water in the Central Valley.
~~~Lunch provided from Sunrise Deli Falafel~~~

*Friday, March 2, 2012. 12:45-2:00pm. Dean’s Conf. Rm.*
A CALL TO ACTION IN RURAL AMERICA
Leaders from major organizations in the Central Valley such as California Rural Legal Assistance and Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment will engage in a dialogue with students and professors about Boalt’s current and future commitment to rural issues. Lisa Pruitt from UC Davis Law will moderate.
[LIMITED SEATING. PLEASE RSVP TO: shainahyder-- at --fulbrightmail.org]
~~~Lunch provided from Gregiore~~~

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13 Days Until Abstracts Due! -- 2nd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2012

I wasn't able to attend the first International Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Queensland, Australia, in 2010.

But I have hopes to make it to the second one, due to be held in Tucson, Arizona, USA, May 29-31, 2012.

The conference is being called "Adaptation Futures" and will be held at the University of Arizona, organized by the Institute of the Environment. They extended the deadline for abstracts to Feb. 15, 2012.

Here's a two-page summary about the conference, including a confirmed list of plenary speakers:
Climate Adaptation Futures: Second International Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2012.

I'm glad to see that "[s]tudents/early-career scholars and participants from developing countries have an opportunity to apply for financial assistance." Full price early (by March 31) registration is $500.

Santa Claus' Adaptation Plans for the North Pole

I put together the following post for the Bay Area Open Space Council's blog, and it went live today: Santa Claus and the Melting North Pole: Is Christmas in Danger?

I'm reposting the text here:

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Santa Claus and the Melting North Pole: Is Christmas in Danger?

By Silver Cherryblossom, Junior Wood Elf Correspondent to the North Pole

ATTENTION HUMAN CHILDREN: This message is from Elf Central in Muir Woods. We have been trying to reach you, but you might not have heard from the Muir Woods Elves before because we have had trouble getting our elf-mail (elf e-mail, which smells like peppermint) to transmit to human e-mail (which doesn’t smell like anything at all). If you get this message, then we’ve finally gotten the tinsel wires untangled. I hope this message gets to you, and it smells OK.

Your First Worry: How are Santa Claus and His Elves Doing with Climate Change?

FIRSTLY, Santa Claus says he is “fine, thanks for asking.” As long as humans continue to give each other gifts from the heart, he will be in good shape and Christmas will come on schedule, ice or no ice.

SECONDLY, the Ice Elves are very organized. They are really good planners – that’s how they are able to make your presents on time every year.  So, they started planning for climate change a long time ago. 

Of course, they have gotten really good with technology by making all your electronic toys.  So, if anyone can figure out what to do about climate change at the North Pole, the Ice Elves can.

If Christmas Will Be OK, Is There Anything That Santa and the Ice Elves Are Worried About?

Well, someone gave me a copy of Executive Memo XMAS-11-001 “On Climate Change and Its Effects RE: Santa’s Workshop Activities,” about the North Pole Workshop’s preparations for climate change.

I’m still just a Junior Correspondent, so I hope I don’t get in trouble for sharing this! (If I do, it might be a while before you get a message from me again!) The memo says it is “classified,” but I don’t know what that word means, so I hope it means that I should share it with everyone.

CLASSIFIED


Executive Memo XMAS-11-001 “On Climate Change and Its Effects RE: Santa’s Workshop Activities”
By Junior Science Elf Frostbottom

Climate change is causing a lot of problems at the North Pole.  The three big ones are ice melting under the Workshop, getting fresh, non-salty water for the Workshop, and our neighbors who rely on ice—animals and humans— losing their homes.

          PROBLEM 1: Ice melting under the Workshop.

With the ice melting, it’s like the ground is moving!  The Workshop floor is already tilting where Mrs. Claus stores the old exercise bicycles (which are very heavy). This is only going to get worse as the ground gets warmer.

There used to be a LOT of ice up here which NEVER melted, and the ice prevented anybody from sailing a ship anywhere near the North Pole. We found a group of scientists skiing near the Workshop in 2009 , and they said the North Pole might be a free-flowing ocean as soon as 2030. (That’s when today’s toddlers will be graduating from college)!

PROPOSED SOLUTION: Move the Workshop to an abandoned oil platform. We can call it Workshop Island. The reindeer might need their own platform for grazing and playing reindeer games.

QUESTION FOR SENIOR SCIENCE ELF: How can we generate electricity on Workshop Island? At the Workshop we have plenty of room for solar panels and windmills, but not on the oil platform. Can we use tidal and wave energy? We need to make enough energy for making toys AND gingerbread.

ANSWER FROM SENIOR SCIENCE ELF:  Click here for more information from the U.S. Department of Energy on getting power from the ocean. 

***NOTE TO SANTA: Look at this! A sea adventure resort built on an old oil platform! 

          PROBLEM 2: Getting water for the workshop.

Mrs. Claus needs the best-tasting fresh water for her delicious peppermint hot chocolate .  Right now, she uses melted ice.  Once the ice is gone, there will be nothing but salty sea water around us.

PROPOSED SOLUTION: Maybe… build a plant that removes salt from water (desalinize the water)?

NOTE FROM SENIOR SCIENCE ELF:  This creates a new problem, because removing salt from sea water takes a lot of energy and leaves behind icky salt sludge. What if instead, we collect rainwater and use less water? We should ask the Island Elves how they do it.

Click here to learn about how kids, elves and reindeer can collect rainwater and use less water at home. 

***NOTE TO SANTA:  Can you take shorter showers?

          PROBLEM 3: Our neighbors who rely on the ice— animals and humans— are losing their homes.

After all the ice melts, some animals who make the ice their home— like polar bears and walruses—  might have nowhere to go. Do they want to stay at the North Pole on their own abandoned oil platforms? We asked, and they said, “No, thanks, those are too small for us.” Do they want to live in zoos? They said, “No, thanks, we don’t want to give up our freedom.”

Our other neighbors at the North Pole are the people who have lived on the ice for centuries. These are the people humans often call Eskimos, even though there are actually many different nations living around the North Pole, including Inuit, Evenk, Yupik, and many others . We asked if they want their own abandoned oil platforms, and they said, “No, thanks, those are too small for us.” Do they want to move south to other lands? They said, “No, thanks, our culture is built on ice and snow: this is our home.”

These are our neighbors, and like any neighbors, we’ve always helped each other out when things have gone wrong… we should try to help them if we can.

PROPOSED SOLUTION: I don’t know. We need to keep talking to our neighbors and asking how we can help.

QUESTION FOR SENIOR SCIENCE ELF: Can we save the ice?

ANSWER FROM SENIOR SCIENCE ELF:  We can’t stop the ice from melting, but we can slow it down if we change how we do things. Can we get humans to slow climate change?

***NOTE TO SANTA: When you are traveling around the world, can you please tell the human children about ways to slow climate change so they can teach their parents? Maybe you can tell them to check these out:

• Super awesome U.S. Environmental Protection Agency climate change site: A Student’s Guide to Climate Change.
• Spiffy U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Climate Kids site (and they talk about sea ice!).
• Global Warming Kids, an information portal presented by science museum docents at the University of California, Berkeley. Full of useful resources, including videos of human children talking about climate change.
• Free Lesson Plans from the North American Association forEnvironmental Education for pre-K to Grade 12— to help teach about nature, including climate change.
• The book The North Pole Was Here: Puzzles and Perils at the Top of the World (by New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin, 2006, for grades 6-9), about how a group of scientists studied the relationship between climate change and the loss of ice at the North Pole.

So, there you go, human children. Remember: don’t worry about Santa’s Workshop. The Ice Elves have it under control. Also:

1. Keep learning about climate change and thinking of ways to slow it down. Ask your teachers about it!
2. When you write your letter to Santa this year, also think about writing to the politicians who represent you in human government to tell them about the people, polar bears, and walruses who depend on the ice at the North Pole, and ask them to help them any way they can. (Get addresses for your representatives here: for the U.S. House of Representatives ; for the U.S. Senate ).
3.  Try to use less water and electricity in your home. (How many ways can you think of to save energy around your house? ) You can help your parents save money and slow down climate change at the same time!

And the next time you visit Muir Woods, keep an eye out for elves and say hello if you see me (I’m the elf with my pointy ears tucked into my park ranger hat).

Merry Christmas!

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Endnote: On Talking About Climate Change with Children

This is a note for adults talking to children (or, adults talking to their inner child) about climate change. Climate change is an overwhelming and scary problem: it can make you feel helpless. A 2010 UC Berkeley study showed that it is dangerous to be too apocalyptic when talking about climate change, inspiring denial instead of action. When talking to children about climate change, try to focus on positive actions they can take to improve the situation. The future is not written in stone, and the children of today may yet dream up solutions we adults haven’t even considered yet!

The piece above is intended for children ages 10-13 (they might have stopped believing in Santa, but are still entertained by the idea). If you have younger kids, consider reading parts of it out loud to them and using it to open a conversation where they can ask questions and brainstorm their own solutions.

Here are some tips about talking to children about climate change:

1. Talk about positive actions that they can do now.
2. Try to keep it simple. It is a complex problem with a lot of dispute about the definition of the problem, its causes and solutions, but you can bottom-line it: scientists have shown us that the earth is warming, and it is changing our environment.
3. Emphasize that we are all a part of the problem and the solution. Even people who question the reality of climate change are asking hard questions that can make our solutions better!

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About the author: Silver Cherryblossom (AKA Sara Moore, of the blog Pacificadaptation.blogspot.com), Junior Wood Elf Correspondent to the North Pole, is stationed at Elf Central in Muir Woods. She researches and writes about climate change adaptation. While she has never seen Santa Claus in person, the Ice Elves reliably send peppermint-scented elf-mail keeping her updated about Santa’s plans for dealing with the melting ice at the North Pole. She thanks all her friends who pitched in to help write this article.