More studies showing species having unexpected responses to climate change

UC Berkeley's Grinnell Resurvey Project has generated data which allows researchers to assert some unexpected truths about species' responses to climate change.

The general wisdom is that species will move upslope/north to retreat from warming conditions. But that isn't how some species are responding. Two new studies -- "The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational range" (Tingley, Koo, Moritz, Rush, and Beissinger) published Aug. 6, 2012, in Global Change Biology, and "Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge" (Morelli, Smith, Kastely, Mastroserio, Moritz, and Beissinger) from Aug. 15, 2012, in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B -- look at this puzzle. The first study found as many as 25% of species have shifted in ways not predicted, considering temperature changes. Lead author Morgan Tingley says, "We find that precipitation changes can have a major, opposing influence to temperature in a species’ range shift." The second study looks at Belding's ground squirrel, an animal perceived to be relatively common in the Sierras which has apparently disappeared from 42% of the places where it was recorded in the early 1900s by the original Grinnell survey. Local extinctions appeared more likely where winters are warmer and rain more frequent. UC Berkeley's Toni Morelli elaborates, "[T]he rate of decline is much greater than that seen in the same region for the pika, a small mountain-dwelling cousin of the rabbit that has become the poster child for the effects of climate warming in the contiguous United States."

Eerily, Tingley pointed out in this Aug. 15 article announcing the two studies' release, "More worrisome are the species that have not shifted. How are they adapting? Are they moving, but we just can’t detect it? Or are they slowly declining as environmental conditions gradually become less ideal where they live?"

Meanwhile, the ground squirrel seems to be doing particularly well in places modified by humans-- artificial oases like Mono Lake County Park. In the end, human land management choices might play a bigger role in the survival of a species than global changes in temperature or rain. It should make our state and local governments reconsider the importance of preserving open space-- you never know what species is making its last stand against climate change there.

California State Vulnerability and Adaptation Study Released at Long Last

The California State Vulnerability and Adaptation Study is finally out! Seven months after it was due to be released, it was launched yesterday (July 31, 2012). I'm not entirely sure what the delay was, but I'm relieved it's out. My component was done almost a year ago, with research centering on an event that took place in January 2011-- the Future of Wild Marin, a scenario planning workshop.

• Read my report on decision-making tools for resource managers facing climate change (167 p. , 2 MB)  
• The V&A Study's 14-page summary document 
•  See a list with links to all 35 studies that comprise the State V&A Study

 Yesterday's press release calls this the "third assessment," so I asked the project coordinator for links to the first two:

• Read the first assessment's non-technical summary from July 2006;  
• See a list with links to the documents comprising the second assessment, which was not peer-reviewed, from 2009 - called the "Climate Action Team Biennial Report to the Governor and Legislature" or "CAT Report"

Go California climate researchers!